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New ODID working paper: Olly Owen and Zainab Usman explore advantages of incumbency in Nigerian elections

A new ODID working paper by Junior Research Fellow Olly Owen and DPhil student Zainab Usman applies research on the advantages conferred by incumbency in elections in consolidating democracies to Nigeria’s Presidential and Governorship polls of March and April 2015.

Nigeria’s Federal system, which involves directly-elected executives commanding significant state powers and resources at both national level and in the 36 constituent States, provides a case where the interplay of incumbency powers is complex yet undoubtedly of central importance.

The paper attempts to map likely trends from these factors, using analysis based on 2011’s elections which were similar in many essential respects. This enables the authors to make an analysis which can later be compared with actual outcomes, to test both the power of this thesis and its importance vis-à-vis other factors affecting election results.

Read the paper.