New article co-authored by Douglas Gollin measures impact of Green Revolution

Posted:
11 May, 2021

A new article co-authored by Douglas Gollin measures the impact of the Green Revolution in the global south.

The authors estimate the impact of the Green Revolution in the developing world by exploiting exogenous heterogeneity in the timing and extent of the benefits derived from high-yielding crop varieties (HYVs). They find that HYVs increased yields by 44% between 1965 ad 2010 with further gains coming through reallocation of inputs.

Higher yields increased income and reduced population growth. A ten-year delay of the Green Revolution would in 2010 have cost 17% of GDP per capita and added 223 million people to the developing world population. The cumulative GDP loss would have been $83 trillion, corresponding to one year of current GDP.

Douglas Gollin, Casper Worm Hansen and Asger Wingender (2021) 'Two Blades of Grass: The Impact of the Green Revolution', Journal of Political Economy, DOI: 10.1086/714444

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