The authors estimate the impact of the Green Revolution in the developing world by exploiting exogenous heterogeneity in the timing and extent of the benefits derived from high-yielding crop varieties (HYVs). They find that HYVs increased yields by 44% between 1965 ad 2010 with further gains coming through reallocation of inputs.

Higher yields increased income and reduced population growth. A ten-year delay of the Green Revolution would in 2010 have cost 17% of GDP per capita and added 223 million people to the developing world population. The cumulative GDP loss would have been $83 trillion, corresponding to one year of current GDP.

Douglas Gollin, Casper Worm Hansen and Asger Wingender (2021) 'Two Blades of Grass: The Impact of the Green Revolution', Journal of Political Economy, DOI: 10.1086/714444