IMI Issues Final Report on Using Scenarios to Explore Future Migration in Horn of Africa and Yemen

28 November, 2012

The IMI's Global Migration Futures project and the Regional Mixed Migration Secretariat in Nairobi have been collaborating to create scenarios to explore potential future drivers and patterns of migration in the Horn of Africa and Yemen.

They sought to promote discussions among migration experts and stakeholders about longer-term developments in the region through the initiative, which took place from January-August 2012. The final report is now available to read on the IMI website. The report:

  • Introduces the core elements of the scenario methodology and the role of experts and stakeholders in the development of scenarios
  • Reviews past and present migration dynamics and patterns in the region
  • Discusses trends that are significant in shaping migration and for which researchers are relatively certain – based on available data and knowledge – will continue through 2030 – e.g. population growth
  • Explores the factors that are highly uncertain in terms of how they will take shape in the future, and that therefore need to be monitored
  • Presents two scenarios of possible futures in the region, their potential consequences for migration, as well as offers a number of insights and important questions for future migration research and policymaking.

The initiative was also featured on IRIN, an online humanitarian news and analysis service of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

The IRIN article, entitled 'In-Depth: Imagining the future of migration', quotes Simona Vezzoli of IMI: ‘When we looked at forecasts on migration, we realized there were some shortfalls. Those approaches…can’t take into account all the factors that aren’t quantifiable and those that are very uncertain.’

The project was sponsored by the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office via the Danish Refugee Council as well as the Oxford Martin School at the University of Oxford. Support for the scenario-building workshop was provided by the International Organization for Migration.